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Jacob Rees-Mogg would return to the Commons with a majority of more than 20,000 if he defected to Reform UK, the party's number crunchers have calculated.

The former Tory MP, who lost his North East Somerset seat at the last election, is said to be agonising about what to do if there is a by-election as a result of the arrest last month of his successor, Labour's Dan Norris, on suspicion of rape and child sex offences.

Although friends stress that there has been no formal approach to Sir Jacob, he is aware of Reform leader Nigel Farage's interest.

Mr Norris, who is now suspended, won the seat with a majority of 5,319, with Reform in third.

A source said: 'Jacob would love to represent the constituency again. But if he stands as a Tory with the party as it is now, he will lose. If he joins Nigel's gang, the party calculates he would win a majority of over 20,000.

'Against that is the fact he's a lifelong, loyal Conservative. He is on the horns of an agonising dilemma'.

Sir Jacob has called for Kemi Badenoch's party to work more closely with Reform, saying after the local elections trouncing: 'We need to be looking very carefully at areas we agree on, and what we can do between now and the general election to reunite the Right.'

But Reform hit back by saying: 'We do not want nor need a pact with a dying Tory party. They are finished.'




Jacob Rees-Mogg (above) could return to the Commons with a majority of more than 20,000 if he defected to Reform UK - and he is said to be 'agonising' over the prospect





Although friends stress that there has been no formal approach to Sir Jacob (left), he is aware of Reform leader Nigel Farage's (right) interest





Sir Jacob (left) has called for Kemi Badenoch's (right) party to work more closely with Reform, after the local elections trouncing

A poll by BMG Research for The i Paper yesterday put Reform on 32 per cent, ahead of Labour on 22 and the Tories on 19. 

Tory strategists have warned that one in five Conservative councillors in areas facing local elections next year are expected to defect to Reform in a bid to avoid defeat.

Asked last night if he was considering standing for Reform if a by-election is called, Sir Jacob said 'it is inappropriate to speculate on such an eventuality', adding: 'My fervent hope remains that my party recovers and becomes once again what it should always be - a genuinely Conservative Party both in spirit and actions.

'Sadly, as the last local elections showed most graphically, many sensible-minded voters simply now believe that Labour and

the Conservatives have become almost indistinguishable. Kemi is beginning to change this and that must continue.'

A Reform source last night described the prospect of a Rees-Mogg defection as 'a rumour we are not going to deny'.


Reform UKNigel FarageLabourJacob Rees-Mogg

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